What if Multics didn’t “fail” and instead became wildly successful and kept evolving?
Let’s time-travel.
What Google Gemini predicted
This is a fascinating “Alternate History” scenario. The failure of Multics was the specific trigger that created the vacuum for Unix (and later Linux) to exist.
If Multics had succeeded, the computing world would be fundamentally different. We would likely be living in a world of centralized computing much earlier, but with a completely different culture.
Here is a prediction of what the OS landscape and technology would look like today in the “Multics Timeline.”
1. The Concept of “The Cloud” Would Be 50 Years Old
Multics was designed to be a “Computing Utility”—like electricity or water. You plug into the wall, and you get computing power. You don’t own a generator (computer); you just pay for the utility.
- Timeline Change: We wouldn’t have waited until the 2010s for AWS or Azure. The entire history of computing from 1970 to 2000 would have been based on massive central mainframes serving millions of dumb terminals.
- Today: You likely wouldn’t own a powerful laptop. You would own a sleek, thin “access pane” (a display with a 5G/6G chip) that connects to the Global Multics Grid. The processing power wouldn’t be in your hand; it would be in the wall.
2. Cybersecurity Would Be Vastly Superior
This is the biggest tragedy of the Unix timeline. Unix was built for speed and simplicity, with security added later as a patch. Multics was designed with military-grade security (Access Control Lists and Ring Protection) from day one.
- No Buffer Overflows: Multics used a high-level language (PL/1) and hardware protection that made many of the common hacks we see today (like buffer overflows in C) impossible.
- Today: The “Malware Industry” might not exist. The constant stream of data breaches, ransomware, and viruses that plague Windows and Linux would be extremely rare. The OS would be a fortress.
3. The “Personal Computer” (PC) Revolution Might Have Failed
The PC (Apple II, IBM PC) rose because people wanted independence from central mainframes.
- The Scenario: If Multics had worked perfectly, it would have been cheap, fast, and available everywhere. There would be no need for a “Personal Computer” if the “Public Computer” was flawless.
- Steve Jobs & Bill Gates: They might have been niche hobbyists. Without the demand for “home computers,” Microsoft (which started by writing BASIC for home computers) and Apple might never have become trillion-dollar giants. The tech giants would likely still be GE, AT&T, and IBM.
4. C and C++ Likely Would Not Exist
Dennis Ritchie created the C language specifically because Multics was too bloated and he needed something simple for the tiny Unix machines.
- The Dominant Language: The world would likely run on PL/1 (Programming Language One). It was the heavy, complex language Multics used.
- Software Development: Coding would be considered an “Engineering Discipline” (like building bridges), requiring formal certification and massive teams. The culture of the “hacker” in a garage whipping up an app in a weekend would be much harder, as the tools would be too complex and expensive.
5. No Open Source Movement (No Linux)
This is the darkest part of the timeline.
- Unix was simple enough that a student (Linus Torvalds) could rewrite it in his bedroom.
- Multics was so complex that only a massive corporation with millions of dollars could build it.
- Result: There would likely be no Linux, no Free Software Foundation, and no Open Source. The OS would be a proprietary “black box” owned by the utility company. You wouldn’t be able to “look under the hood” of your computer any more than you can look under the hood of your electric meter.
Summary: The “Multics Timeline” vs. Our Timeline
| Feature | Our Timeline (Unix/Linux/Windows) | The Multics Timeline |
| Philosophy | “Worse is Better” (Simple, cheap, fast) | “The Right Thing” (Perfect, complex, secure) |
| Device | Powerful Personal Devices (iPhone, Laptop) | Thin Terminals / Screens connected to Grid |
| Security | Patched constantly, prone to viruses | Hardware-enforced, military-grade by design |
| Coding | Accessible to everyone (Python, JS) | Elite profession for certified engineers (PL/1) |
| Dominant Company | Apple, Microsoft, Google | AT&T, General Electric, Honeywell |
The Verdict: We would have a more secure and stable digital world, but it would be less creative and less democratic. The chaos of the “failed” Multics project gave us the freedom of the Personal Computer and the Open Source movement.
What ChatGPT predicted
Scenario 1: No Unix → No Linux → No Modern Internet As We Know It
Without Unix:
- No BSD
- No System V
- No POSIX
- No GNU movement (or very different)
- No Linux
- No Android (which is Linux-based)
- macOS wouldn’t be Unix-based
The entire modern server ecosystem could look completely different.
Scenario 2: Multics Becomes the Global Standard OS
If Multics evolved successfully:
1. Enterprise-grade security would dominate from Day 1
Multics had ring-based protection and strong ACLs.
Modern OS security might be:
- Mandatory access control by default
- Hardware-integrated privilege levels everywhere
- Fewer ransomware disasters
Security-first design would be standard — not patched later.
2. Cloud Computing Might Have Started Earlier
Multics was built for time-sharing — basically:
One powerful computer → many users → isolated environments
That’s basically early cloud architecture.
AWS-like systems might have emerged in the 1980s instead of 2006.
Amazon Web Services could have been 20 years early — or a totally different company might have dominated.
3. Personal Computers Might Be Very Different
Unix thrived because it was simple and portable. Multics was heavy.
If Multics dominated:
- OS might be centralized and service-based
- Thin clients might be the norm
- Local computing less important
- More mainframe-style evolution
Instead of everyone having powerful laptops, we might still rely heavily on central systems.
Scenario 4: Programming Languages Would Be Different
Unix popularized C.
If Multics had continued:
- PL/I might dominate
- System-level development would be more structured
- Maybe no C → no C++ → no Rust in current form
Modern dev ecosystem might look completely alien.
Scenario 5: Open Source Movement Might Be Slower
Unix spread because AT&T couldn’t commercially license it initially. That accident led to:
- BSD
- GNU
- Linux
- Open source revolution
If Multics became a commercial enterprise product:
- We might live in a more proprietary OS world
- Less community-driven software
- More vendor-locked systems
So What Would Today’s OS Look Like?
If Multics had succeeded and evolved:
Modern OS might be:
- Highly modular
- Security-enforced at hardware level
- Service-oriented by design
- Centralized compute model
- Strong access controls by default
- Less fragmentation
But maybe:
- Slower innovation
- Less hacker culture
- Less open-source freedom
If Multics had won:
We might have a more secure but less flexible world.
Instead, Unix’s simplicity allowed:
Hackers → Universities → Startups → Internet explosion → Cloud → DevOps → Open Source revolution
Chaos created innovation.
Multics’ “failure” gave us Unix.
Unix gave us:
- Linux
- macOS core
- Android
- Internet servers
- DevOps culture
- Containers (indirectly)
- POSIX standardization
Sometimes failure creates simplicity and simplicity wins.